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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-10🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9f13815f

Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 Hits

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

-176risk0.11u→win0.06uVOIDESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-176

Closing

-176

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 79.2% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +15.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=9 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +15.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #9 vs this prop (+6.6% vs league avg over 277 games)
  • 79.2% over last 15 games

Line movement

-176-1760.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1347
UUIDb7671556-d532-466d-aa6a-668482097788
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-10 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-07-11 22:46 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9f13815f993ba08c2ce259d9e6d49eb7d272592e9b93f314469783f3b7212d39
Closing line-176 captured 2026-07-10 21:21 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashedb78eba65a0b3128f767b81fce157de0be130f528ccf1d28b844ff7cbf1758e

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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