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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED ce0fb3f9

Cole Young Over 0.5 Hits

Seattle Mariners @ LA Dodgers

-189risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-189

Closing

-186

CLV

-0.56%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 65.4% implied → +14.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Seattle Mariners2
Los Angeles Dodgers6
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-07-30
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-189
1.5291
Closing
-186
1.5376
Delta
-0.56%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1677
UUID13e00d72-96d5-4857-8213-39b1b1c94328
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 21:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashce0fb3f9a6b2ed1c87362790aa67f468a7753c1fa97f7a459d5ac94e8ead94c4
Closing line-186 captured 2026-07-31 00:54 UTC
CLV delta-0.56%
Closing hashee0e992127351779b915061fd8c557d388093f275ab0d81c1b69b0f7232527bb

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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