Aliyah Boston Over 7.5 Rebounds
Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever
Edge
Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 69.1% implied → +10.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 02ed6b)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +10.9pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+5.4% vs league avg over 104 games)
- 80.0% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1415
UUIDc688b0c6-b907-4448-8796-9c0120c2cb13
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-17 21:09 UTC
Graded2026-07-18 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3bcb07524150e7224e299a2587cbc7ac24103b4cd00f759db4e3446445b5c2e7
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Why this receipt is trustable
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