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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED cdb7809d

Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

-170risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-170

Closing

-180

CLV

+2.10%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +22.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees4
Philadelphia Phillies11
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-07-26
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
15
Hit rate
64.3%
9-5
ROI
-3.51%
-0.07u
CLV avg
+0.57%
n=13
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (15 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
+2.10%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1566
UUIDe18e0e4b-cea8-4305-ad95-81d12a5cfefd
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-26 22:29 UTC
Graded2026-07-27 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashcdb7809df3760a40087511a45de223742765d87c366dfa14552cb84c1b6464dc
Closing line-180 captured 2026-07-26 22:38 UTC
CLV delta+2.10%
Closing hash231da1a3dacbaf29f8707106f15573e233bf88cfb38a40ad06ee8eb8a0070ee4

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,127 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public10 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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