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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 14c09190

Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 Hits

Houston Astros @ CHI White Sox

-195risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-195

Closing

-195

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.8% over last 15 games vs 66.1% implied → +14.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Houston Astros3
Chicago White Sox12
Winner: Chicago White Sox · 2026-07-26
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-195
1.5128
Closing
-195
1.5128
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1564
UUID7e3a85aa-8699-4856-8865-ab9fc2a982fa
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-26 17:00 UTC
Graded2026-07-26 21:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash14c09190fa09916abe4375a504006f270e7c74aecdc22a7ee72c9831c946feec
Closing line-195 captured 2026-07-26 17:11 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashedffc04110856424a29551ec083603d1bcfa19fa21011e57fabc2500f3f9f574

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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