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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 89b01723

Mookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-165

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +19.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Seattle Mariners2
Los Angeles Dodgers4
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-07-29
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1630
UUID871c6945-0c40-4cce-b487-a89a37408dcb
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-30 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash89b017235320a451cd8ee7b9e0e5a09de60795cb90d10773559fe70ef51460f8
Closing line-165 captured 2026-07-30 00:49 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash9a7b64c6542d146f63c3743be0d5271191eda0abd5d33c5ad6cdb00bc9088b1f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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