Christian Yelich Under 1.5 Total Bases
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels
Edge
Empirical 91.5% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +16.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers0
Los Angeles Angels3
Winner: Los Angeles Angels · 2026-08-02
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1718
UUID51f2dd35-13bf-4856-b983-c220a39a5f80
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-03 19:19 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2ea655744941d613dce00c8e50ae1838ea9279305fdece48c0ea671ab3c02dd1
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public9 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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