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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-27🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 407f2d6b

Jonah Heim Under 1.5 Total Bases

Boston Red Sox @ Athletics

-180risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-180

Closing

-180

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +12.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Boston Red Sox4
Athletics2
Winner: Boston Red Sox · 2026-07-27
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1570
UUID18605e90-1c05-4976-8469-56d16b1344c3
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-27 20:44 UTC
Graded2026-07-28 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash407f2d6b62121e6f1378f921231033c74b9b7b98644497b5dbfe8dd110816ba9
Closing line-180 captured 2026-07-28 00:23 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashc8124bd320fe8b9eebe8cdef9a1945c81bb6e6d9cfe08022036e43f296cf23c7

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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