Taylor Ward Under 1.5 Total Bases
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
Edge
Empirical 97.5% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +24.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (caesars)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Seattle Mariners19
Athletics1
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-09-12
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#9481
UUIDf9afdd85-7f23-4359-99e3-9d570de22be6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-12 15:12 UTC
Graded2026-09-14 01:47 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbbdc67742d45b8f97ab33c1521e90110616a1a04105362dc9fc382f244c46deb
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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