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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED dc947400

Josh Bell Over 0.5 Total Bases

Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers

-180risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-180

Closing

-175

CLV

-1.01%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.2% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +16.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Minnesota Twins12
Texas Rangers2
Winner: Minnesota Twins · 2026-06-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
-1.01%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1193
UUID1abd666d-60d2-47a8-a2ae-2590b817cc8d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-16 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-17 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashdc9474001bdfcfe9fa02e7e3201c2b6271b55dcbe1e59e74a734f1df1d7b8282
Closing line-175 captured 2026-06-16 22:37 UTC
CLV delta-1.01%
Closing hash7cb7e1dbfb174354f171827c407ea6e540857031b9d93f628b9c62b50585a681

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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