Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-31🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e2cba678

Munetaka Murakami Under 1.5 Total Bases

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-165

CLV

-1.11%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.5% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +12.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox6
Tampa Bay Rays1
Winner: Chicago White Sox · 2026-07-31
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
-1.11%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1690
UUID1e0a4b3d-ffb9-4ad9-9fdb-83beccb985f7
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-31 20:16 UTC
Graded2026-08-01 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe2cba678c525237806368bcb3e807b8b766f1e61fcde5eb52b509b9b3ab77ebd
Closing line-165 captured 2026-07-31 21:54 UTC
CLV delta-1.11%
Closing hashc6b7a71dc9ef194f59085d8a6122695a67efb3f7c3455bf3527183669ab2d679

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801