Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8c9717a0

Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 Hits

Athletics @ San Diego Padres

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-181

CLV

+1.22%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 76.8% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +13.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +13.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #6 vs this prop (+6.9% vs league avg over 277 games)
  • 76.8% over last 15 games

Line movement

-175-181-0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-181
1.5525
Delta
+1.22%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1026
UUID2755f136-1305-46ca-8d24-a9974e5acf59
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-23 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-24 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8c9717a0c60c27f8b3487c23e68fc360cf72dda6881e12818c28edca3c44b2e0
Closing line-181 captured 2026-05-24 00:12 UTC
CLV delta+1.22%
Closing hash227accea0381d0ab6a3e92b128f72d6d635660b67b9050dc34becb3c8023eaf0

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801