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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f06f9731

Casey Schmitt Over 0.5 Hits

San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers

-164risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-164

Closing

-162

CLV

-0.47%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 79.6% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +17.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #2 vs this prop (+14.5% vs league avg over 290 games)
  • 79.6% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-162+0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-162
1.6173
Delta
-0.47%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1102
UUID2b206324-5ed4-4948-bb1a-5cc25ca34894
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-02 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-03 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf06f97314145dfe1d585d93f3b704461aee8c851d140c83ed5358106ea15cd79
Closing line-162 captured 2026-06-02 22:10 UTC
CLV delta-0.47%
Closing hashf0802e8359c8eb3d0f6024e9fa73a7f1b7fc2db7391205641c54f3cabcf4ea9b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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