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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f27a8fe0

Carson Benge Over 0.5 Total Bases

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-173

CLV

+0.65%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 71.5% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +8.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: db1301)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +8.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #22 vs this prop (-3.4% vs league avg over 289 games)
  • Opposing starter David Peterson blowing up: 8.3 ERA over last 3 starts at 2.9 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-170-173-0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-173
1.5780
Delta
+0.65%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1047
UUID2fcfaa34-bd94-46fb-9f51-4a6774aca6d7
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf27a8fe00d4ad9753fdbf2ce20db9adabee33b2ab7b4391da9ce66c1e72b3cfa
Closing line-173 captured 2026-05-26 21:41 UTC
CLV delta+0.65%
Closing hash3f8d2ee70abdf737039f83a7b1cb1b651cf09b333ced106c64152cd9be89c91b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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