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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f7f835c7

Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Hits

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

-170risk0.14u→win0.08u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.14u

Odds

-170

Closing

-176

CLV

+1.28%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 83.2% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +20.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Angels4
Seattle Mariners8
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-09-26
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
6
Settled
6
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
-5.75%
-0.04u
CLV avg
+0.22%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (6 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
+1.28%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#13409
UUID3224d685-4a1e-451d-ba66-784327eeacde
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-26 21:13 UTC
Graded2026-09-27 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf7f835c771bb57b86861330c74711490254c374dc57c44954a7dbabc3f5617a9
Closing line-176 captured 2026-09-27 00:22 UTC
CLV delta+1.28%
Closing hash9d7e17d2695d248eac6df7bb2439a41f9bdb58e7e8a97101c014d3bf3895e365

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.1% hashed
    1,376 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.8% closed
    1,374 settled picks · 65.8% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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