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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED ca2675c1

Christian Yelich Under 1.5 Total Bases

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants

-190risk0.1u→win0.05u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-190

Closing

-190

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.8% over last 15 games vs 65.5% implied → +9.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers8
San Francisco Giants2
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-07-28
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-190
1.5263
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1593
UUID3468db0e-7ba9-4092-bc8c-7572618c2020
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-28 20:44 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashca2675c16dc08123e8b864cdf1b9f20bddb8ebe1f767b101d4b0edf62b101807
Closing line-190 captured 2026-07-29 04:35 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash2b3b6eaa01ae1ac98ea84da76e65fda7ba7b06be4b697079813202a994a09274

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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