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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9c083da1

Brice Turang Over 0.5 Hits

Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers

-194risk0.15u→win0.08u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-194

Closing

-187

CLV

-1.26%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.2% over last 15 games vs 66.0% implied → +20.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Miami Marlins1
Milwaukee Brewers3
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-07-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-194
1.5155
Closing
-187
1.5348
Delta
-1.26%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1542
UUID3fe4c52b-f67a-47e3-9916-68b9745d6af5
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-19 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-07-20 00:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9c083da1085f798327d283c7170e00a3df98d54c1b2e76ca7ffd3c74613d88a4
Closing line-187 captured 2026-07-19 16:42 UTC
CLV delta-1.26%
Closing hash2720c12cfec20d07bf8cdee3acef1477750a7a01f3eccb1a7c141dd0b3ba9404

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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