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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 15adabda

Daylen Lile Over 0.5 Hits

Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians

-165risk0.11u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-165

Closing

-182

CLV

+3.65%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 79.6% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (+2.8% vs league avg over 290 games)
  • 79.6% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-182-0.06 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-182
1.5495
Delta
+3.65%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1042
UUID41207a52-689d-4f1c-9b2d-4f233f78c310
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash15adabda9b6c624aebd3afd935391034f3fb56003d1061d29f1e0f9a7a5d120d
Closing line-182 captured 2026-05-26 20:41 UTC
CLV delta+3.65%
Closing hash79e2eb8a13f935fde8b65dfc50bbd9a2d86e2d451dad5714e639ee8ee704730d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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