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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-10🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED d96ee742

Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 Hits

CHI Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

-169risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-169

Closing

-149

CLV

-4.75%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 76.6% over last 15 games vs 62.8% implied → +13.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=9 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago Cubs0
Cincinnati Reds4
Winner: Cincinnati Reds · 2026-07-10
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-169
1.5917
Closing
-149
1.6711
Delta
-4.75%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1346
UUID446172af-6021-4d67-adcf-18471ffa1e0f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-10 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-07-11 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd96ee74271e78068ae649ce5fc4016ecd6e6b251bee2726c210c5205b038a086
Closing line-149 captured 2026-07-10 21:51 UTC
CLV delta-4.75%
Closing hashc9fa9be8d5a52a0d537836534c567c6a3f3ba5fab80871d96efa792a6f429393

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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