Jacob Wilson Over 0.5 Hits
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
-250risk0.19u→win0.08u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 92.9% over last 15 games vs 71.4% implied → +21.4pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +21.4pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+27.1% vs league avg over 259 games)
- Outdoor conditions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (S): ball carries, HR-friendly.
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
57.1%
12-9
ROI
-8.61%
-0.27u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=20
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#548
UUIDa5113172-757b-4c10-a378-6a08452c9c23
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-08 18:37 UTC
Graded2026-05-09 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha5e050ca2f0e6859186f12c7578086a60f98ca0bece37c4b3f1e04184d7fd462
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Why this receipt is trustable
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