Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 Hits
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
-235PENDING
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +16.5pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Audit trail
Pick ID#554
UUIDc5c89100-510d-4a6c-b8a0-aae3674e1585
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-08 18:37 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7dba55b8ecbc2c0141cf94235c2449e368ab545c7e789e530df09d703c1027f8
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