Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 Hits
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
-235risk0.14u→win0.06u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +16.5pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +16.5pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #5 vs this prop (+12.3% vs league avg over 249 games)
- 86.7% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#554
UUIDc5c89100-510d-4a6c-b8a0-aae3674e1585
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-08 18:37 UTC
Graded2026-05-09 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7dba55b8ecbc2c0141cf94235c2449e368ab545c7e789e530df09d703c1027f8
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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