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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 54ac5d60

Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Hits

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

-164risk0.14u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.14u

Odds

-164

Closing

-170

CLV

+1.36%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 83.2% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +21.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Angels7
Seattle Mariners5
Winner: Los Angeles Angels · 2026-09-25
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
6
Settled
6
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
-5.75%
-0.04u
CLV avg
+0.22%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (6 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
+1.36%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#13168
UUID5981981b-0738-4438-ac49-9abe4bdcfcee
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-25 18:07 UTC
Graded2026-09-26 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash54ac5d604acd578d501c37349e9731121e860fa77167ef500e57307e5b23bb3d
Closing line-170 captured 2026-09-26 00:52 UTC
CLV delta+1.36%
Closing hash93ae5672da06a94c10338baf74e64c42f8d6cf1d7127c53cf300619b86055933

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.1% hashed
    1,376 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.8% closed
    1,374 settled picks · 65.8% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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