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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED d8c34d76

Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

-164risk0.13u→win0.08u
WIN

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-164

Closing

-176

CLV

+2.65%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.6% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +19.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 72f6fb)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +19.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #9 vs this prop (+5.1% vs league avg over 283 games)
  • 81.6% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-176-0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
+2.65%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1098
UUID5b53322d-4eaf-4925-b56c-5d6431790553
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-02 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-03 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd8c34d76375bafc0abb231cb26750abd5b4857bfaa860b1f7d21be0d7a886f34
Closing line-176 captured 2026-06-02 21:36 UTC
CLV delta+2.65%
Closing hash0b656e63f52c1c0ea1d86b20bb0b5ca155b13a6ce78d1ef5877bc003acca114b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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