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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f63f2ad6

Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-150

CLV

-4.71%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 79.6% over last 11 games vs 63.0% implied → +12.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 11 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Pittsburgh Pirates3
Colorado Rockies4
Winner: Colorado Rockies · 2026-06-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-150
1.6667
Delta
-4.71%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1226
UUID619cc6ef-0b60-4d43-a87d-2651e490303d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-19 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf63f2ad6ce587fd3dcef44a60980a20bca61c316420df29f19af4b41da93cf9f
Closing line-150 captured 2026-06-19 23:12 UTC
CLV delta-4.71%
Closing hashf9beacfd0e7c5855d81014715abc62c5df00423b6354e85eea63327904d4e3d1

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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