Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Hits
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
-325risk0.1u→win0.03u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 98.0% over last 6 games vs 76.5% implied → +8.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +8.6pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #18 vs this prop (-4.2% vs league avg over 288 games)
- Outdoor conditions at Kauffman Stadium: 10 mph wind blowing IN (N): ball suppressed, fade HR overs; precip risk: slight chance showers and thunderstorms then chance showers and thunderstorms.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#634
UUIDd9b574f7-d0d0-486a-b9a7-2b31e5a7c47b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:49 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1165db66e60a70c0f75ce46b06c1450f728f1382af2efeeba3c81c12ea1d6159
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