Josh Naylor Over 0.5 Hits
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
-240LOSS
Edge
Empirical 86.2% over last 15 games vs 70.6% implied → +15.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Audit trail
Pick ID#684
UUID3b6a3d32-95e3-48f1-9b0d-b93ca68a33c0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-11 20:35 UTC
Graded2026-05-12 08:00 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1486aef97ec1a36b623569abaa12d3b088749567413996f88d9ceb192f3eef3f
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