Gabby Williams Over 14.5 Points
Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries
Edge
Empirical 76.9% over last 13 games vs 62.1% implied → +12.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 13 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +12.8pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #3 vs this prop (+7.6% vs league avg over 105 games)
- 76.9% over last 13 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1185
UUID6cbb1d33-6b4f-46a0-8b69-d0e5d7162597
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-16 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-18 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash63ac559e7fc8220e73e8c5783b1c8cc848a43489f09badc5b909ca2921dfdcc4
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Why this receipt is trustable
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