Friendly alt over at 71.0% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (71.0% vs 73.3%).

Signal

Same lineup gate as ML

Context

MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung

Risk

Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.

Audit trail

Pick ID#711

UUID640e25af-0a93-454c-babb-555970f2910a

Surfacesharp:MLB

Posted2026-05-12 22:46 UTC

Graded2026-05-13 01:54 UTC

Lineup confirmmlb:824927:2026-05-12T23:15:00Z

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hashdf49b8aa945c461d917ccbff3122e882331386d3b5c56d286238933fb8bc598a

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