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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-09🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4f9bd3ed

Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Hits

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds

-178risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-178

Closing

-178

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 76.6% over last 15 games vs 64.0% implied → +12.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 144f8f)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=10 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies1
Cincinnati Reds0
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-07-09
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-178
1.5618
Closing
-178
1.5618
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1340
UUID7190b403-c29f-4e80-b661-d2af7da8ac37
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-09 22:33 UTC
Graded2026-07-10 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4f9bd3edd2edd0a9a092683074208f48da043e3647280d01e142bbdcaa8856fe
Closing line-178 captured 2026-07-09 22:44 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hasha3526bcf5a3077949da283fddf3835ba7bf2c5fb250325c401464b7f8e0abef0

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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