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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-09🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7df408e3

Josh Lowe Over 0.5 Hits

LA Angels @ Texas Rangers

-166risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-166

Closing

-161

CLV

-1.15%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.6% over last 12 games vs 62.4% implied → +17.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 12 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=10 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Angels6
Texas Rangers7
Winner: Texas Rangers · 2026-07-09
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-166
1.6024
Closing
-161
1.6211
Delta
-1.15%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1341
UUID83e37e12-1221-492e-9c2a-63bef90eca8e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-09 22:33 UTC
Graded2026-07-10 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7df408e385e2a40bd9d0c8ea7994d6e634ce24eb1abedf3d8d9c5f2965809162
Closing line-161 captured 2026-07-09 22:44 UTC
CLV delta-1.15%
Closing hashdea396509dfe6ba56b53dd52e6f943a24a32dd5ef341fcb03734bfa673cdfb72

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,127 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public10 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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