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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-05🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 0beec63d

Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

-170risk0.19u→win0.11u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.19u

Odds

-170

Closing

-197

CLV

+5.35%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 90.6% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +27.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers3
Cincinnati Reds5
Winner: Cincinnati Reds · 2026-09-05
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-197
1.5076
Delta
+5.35%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#7645
UUIDa7ea408d-0440-4b3b-9d65-b01f79ce3015
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-05 20:05 UTC
Graded2026-09-06 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0beec63dc096594a95534000974d19a0d611c0498372771dab49cca705052c7d
Closing line-197 captured 2026-09-05 21:23 UTC
CLV delta+5.35%
Closing hashd45cfd9a867df3ad54b69c7ea30eb8d741f063dfd4542162fbfb415b88377a0b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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