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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1e6131ea

Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Hits

Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-168

CLV

-0.44%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 70.4% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +7.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 0f9cb2)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles0
Seattle Mariners3
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-06-18
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-168
1.5952
Delta
-0.44%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1212
UUID7be4939c-94e6-40d8-8fa9-33c164142782
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-18 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-19 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1e6131eaf3b6c35412cb12eec2863ad52cab99be31413c86c740b45cda9a3031
Closing line-168 captured 2026-06-18 20:31 UTC
CLV delta-0.44%
Closing hash9b7d94b791a064813fcad1e9c8359d21989b5b537a88fadc45a54badc8d2535f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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