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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b0635cec

Jahmai Jones Under 1.5 Total Bases

Boston Red Sox @ Athletics

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-175

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 91.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +16.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Boston Red Sox4
Athletics2
Winner: Boston Red Sox · 2026-07-29
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1631
UUID8d71befd-dc56-428f-8cee-a0343a0cffbe
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-30 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb0635cec14404b2e977a28cd66856ca01891306eb5486467b22a4e452e190687
Closing line-175 captured 2026-07-30 00:19 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash0a294f6ec6390f0ae49cb7b213b0cb7a9f0728cc32cf4116292b423433afca18

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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