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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9082397b

Kelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points

Indiana Fever @ Seattle Storm

-231risk0.14u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.14u

Odds

-231

Closing

-203

CLV

-4.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 69.8% implied → +16.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #5 vs this prop (+7.2% vs league avg over 66 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-231-203+0.06 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-231
1.4329
Closing
-203
1.4926
Delta
-4.00%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1588
UUID94c534d2-285a-4fc3-a246-3c812c5615df
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-28 20:44 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 04:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9082397b5bb62207ae7c14a8963d49073db596853e1e70e55a1a46c5868a06ce
Closing line-203 captured 2026-07-29 00:05 UTC
CLV delta-4.00%
Closing hashd1a7652b8a0eff313bcdf825b9a6f1d5719a15facc61e694d71ebe04d425761f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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