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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-21🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e6bbf92f

Kyle Karros Over 0.5 Hits

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-220

CLV

+10.42%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+21.8% vs league avg over 284 games)
  • 73.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-220-0.15 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-220
1.4545
Delta
+10.42%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1005
UUID96a760bb-e34d-4f4a-9e16-eae4564f4a4e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-21 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 07:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe6bbf92f66eb7eac9b284c61857963dd29f6d5c1966708cdff255c02e16feb5d
Closing line-220 captured 2026-05-22 00:11 UTC
CLV delta+10.42%
Closing hashb56464568d855894414b71e86b18b60133f586a5decb3741172d4f754d7ed84a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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