Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 Points
Los Angeles Sparks @ Golden State Valkyries
Edge
Empirical 75.0% over last 12 games vs 63.6% implied → +9.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: 69da41)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 12 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +9.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #2 vs this prop (+17.5% vs league avg over 104 games)
- 75.0% over last 12 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1171
UUIDb2b5391b-5b55-4ed9-bd9f-73db2bde50f0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-14 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-16 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7fd87fb370a1cfcd18cd392d3c3da0e70fb50d51519bc233891d463593d69fa0
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Why this receipt is trustable
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