Andrew Velazquez Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies
Edge
Empirical 99.9% over last 5 games vs 63.6% implied → +5.7pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals1
Colorado Rockies8
Winner: Colorado Rockies · 2026-08-02
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
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Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1714
UUIDba7d391d-20d5-41f7-91a4-ab2652ba5bbd
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-03 19:19 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe127164414134b493d29630a494a4f5e3ce5a862a2bac1f2d1c3fe6eeefd1967
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Why this receipt is trustable
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- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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