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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 264fa513

Nneka Ogwumike Over 2.5 Assists

Los Angeles Sparks @ Portland Fire

-219risk0.1u→win0.05u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-219

Closing

-243

CLV

+3.20%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 68.7% implied → +11.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #10 vs this prop (-0.2% vs league avg over 89 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-219-243-0.05 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-219
1.4566
Closing
-243
1.4115
Delta
+3.20%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1708
UUIDc155b476-fc19-4177-815a-c16ac0fc9510
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 23:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash264fa5130ac5ebcebde72b62b3b099c54afbc4945efa0c6b8e0938c312763f5a
Closing line-243 captured 2026-08-02 18:05 UTC
CLV delta+3.20%
Closing hash55130852afbfd04e8166f8563b2bb9e7e7884c1c9c861996f8ee2be2cadd68c3

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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