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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 714ed4f3

Kahleah Copper Over 2.5 Rebounds

Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury

-231risk0.19u→win0.08u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.19u

Odds

-231

Closing

-247

CLV

+2.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 69.8% implied → +23.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +23.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-5.2% vs league avg over 72 games)
  • 93.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-231-247-0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-231
1.4329
Closing
-247
1.4049
Delta
+2.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1647
UUIDc8b86000-aca4-4ea2-9ade-31632e20b4ea
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 17:47 UTC
Graded2026-07-30 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash714ed4f3aaeef3279ac8819b4f58ca0d1eaf0f409c018df06d0f2ed4017c338d
Closing line-247 captured 2026-07-30 00:34 UTC
CLV delta+2.00%
Closing hashfa8b4f8db4f9a4b234d713240cbc59e2a891bf9ebb305039422446e9704804f5

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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