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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9fc7e5fd

Curtis Mead Over 0.5 Hits

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

-179risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-179

Closing

-200

CLV

+3.91%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 72.6% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +8.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +8.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #12 vs this prop (+1.5% vs league avg over 297 games)
  • 72.6% over last 15 games

Line movement

-179-200-0.06 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-200
1.5000
Delta
+3.91%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1097
UUIDcc8e1c9a-90e6-48bc-9bde-e43df2fa47c8
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-02 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-03 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9fc7e5fd6f91d98451ee729e67361465212f9ab55b8602417e9e509343ce8961
Closing line-200 captured 2026-06-02 21:16 UTC
CLV delta+3.91%
Closing hashc969986e78f4553fb47549c427e1c3a833d400a03a1b038f194273aa5a1a69f7

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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