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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED fbdf1df2

Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

-250risk0.1u→win0.04u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-250

Closing

-250

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 71.4% implied → +9.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago Cubs2
St. Louis Cardinals3
Winner: St. Louis Cardinals · 2026-07-29
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-250
1.4000
Closing
-250
1.4000
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1634
UUIDdd1c133a-9071-4923-84b3-2b5b880ef548
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-30 05:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfbdf1df2ecc0193bbc4bba9105525f8be27746781132211eea948054770baff0
Closing line-250 captured 2026-07-29 22:29 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash5842e3bed38d44326201e7f0006c532b6adc5377269bda159aada7eb21d0b17e

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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