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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 11dc9bc8

Dylan Crews Over 0.5 Hits

San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-189

CLV

+2.77%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.6% over last 8 games vs 63.6% implied → +12.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: 1248a9)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 8 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +12.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #5 vs this prop (+6.0% vs league avg over 289 games)
  • 86.6% over last 8 games

Line movement

-175-189-0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-189
1.5291
Delta
+2.77%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1071
UUIDdfc21e1c-302a-491d-96d6-8c0fc61bdacf
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-29 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-30 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash11dc9bc85ba359f76c73d34aafcea4d66335f8e750cacfc6c5c33094d2a96b08
Closing line-189 captured 2026-05-29 21:17 UTC
CLV delta+2.77%
Closing hashe61e93b9c631d09c2a46710668a5a2f3821b24baecc1411bdd294fa5ed5d3b81

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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