Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 Hits
Boston Red Sox @ LA Dodgers
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +23.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 4b8d0e)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Boston Red Sox8
Los Angeles Dodgers4
Winner: Boston Red Sox · 2026-08-02
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-173
1.5780
Closing
-181
1.5525
Delta
+1.65%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1723
UUIDe59173eb-9f39-4237-a0e0-fb31c96fd117
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 21:05 UTC
Graded2026-08-03 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash05add0630a7db17cc493aaa386b25ae3687d2359e008b67736f09ecef5b8c97b
Closing line-181 captured 2026-08-02 21:50 UTC
CLV delta+1.65%
Closing hash2868ea7087195c0ff8efba23536c7bcd35958bffa41456fc48878be9f4c62b51
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Why this receipt is trustable
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