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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 05add063

Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 Hits

Boston Red Sox @ LA Dodgers

-173risk0.16u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-173

Closing

-181

CLV

+1.65%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +23.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 4b8d0e)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Boston Red Sox8
Los Angeles Dodgers4
Winner: Boston Red Sox · 2026-08-02
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-173
1.5780
Closing
-181
1.5525
Delta
+1.65%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1723
UUIDe59173eb-9f39-4237-a0e0-fb31c96fd117
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 21:05 UTC
Graded2026-08-03 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash05add0630a7db17cc493aaa386b25ae3687d2359e008b67736f09ecef5b8c97b
Closing line-181 captured 2026-08-02 21:50 UTC
CLV delta+1.65%
Closing hash2868ea7087195c0ff8efba23536c7bcd35958bffa41456fc48878be9f4c62b51

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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