Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists
Las Vegas Aces @ Los Angeles Sparks
-173risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 70.0% over last 10 games vs 63.4% implied → +4.4pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 10 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +4.4pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (-6.5% vs league avg over 98 games)
- 70.0% over last 10 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1095
UUIDf19dc5b6-db9b-4997-952a-0b27f9ceb99f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-02 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-03 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3174b3fea8627b1ed8d97083948cc627bb0c4cbcc95cea0b7731da6aaed2b96c
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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