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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED ca59fc60

Spencer Jones Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

-235risk0.1u→win0.04u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-235

Closing

-210

CLV

-3.43%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +10.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees5
Chicago White Sox6
Winner: Chicago White Sox · 2026-07-29
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-235
1.4255
Closing
-210
1.4762
Delta
-3.43%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1633
UUIDf3a61ae2-a61f-4174-bb1a-f3096b111edf
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-30 05:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashca59fc60f73a903cbfa3e6cf8f30c52f0a12fe1b0d584d32cf3a408bc723e7ad
Closing line-210 captured 2026-07-29 22:14 UTC
CLV delta-3.43%
Closing hash231b217cd958e1b985b7177fec8d21077963920e4fd9f67da78d2f12fb5f0cd1

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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