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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-09🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 3fa4a819

T.J. Rumfield Over 0.5 Hits

Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees

-164risk0.16u→win0.1uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in54:54
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-164

Closing

-176

CLV

+2.65%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +24.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +24.5pt EV vs implied
  • 86.7% over last 15 games
  • L10 hit-rate: 100% (10/10)

Line movement

-164-176-0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
+2.65%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8601
UUID61d42a28-2562-4b64-a532-ec9c0de69665
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-09 15:11 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3fa4a8199b5192645c32630d82ae23f92a3b48b868df4f7f5cef477ad7d09687
Closing line-176 captured 2026-09-09 21:38 UTC
CLV delta+2.65%
Closing hash71b6b08671a1093ffa7741042cc9c4ea60f84bd322859d43768798378ef5ae32

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,117 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public19 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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