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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 2d7ea30b

J.T. Ginn Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Washington Nationals @ Athletics

-179risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-179

Closing

-206

CLV

+4.93%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 78.0% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +13.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Washington Nationals1
Athletics15
Winner: Athletics · 2026-07-18
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-206
1.4854
Delta
+4.93%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1437
UUIDfb4b8a1b-2589-4c87-85d6-65792e2aaea9
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-18 15:19 UTC
Graded2026-07-19 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2d7ea30be0d87d9bae48cb220db3cc6e763537b00b3c697b443f8e2365658d47
Closing line-206 captured 2026-07-19 00:48 UTC
CLV delta+4.93%
Closing hash677b9534ba0d7309ea0e82684d176817f6483bbf5539606e1711933ec7fc08f4

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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