Lane Hutson Over 0.5 Points
Carolina Hurricanes @ Montréal Canadiens
-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NHL player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +11.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (-31.6% vs league avg over 126 games)
- 73.3% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1052
UUIDfbc02173-b204-4fa4-8182-cb2f74044b7c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-05-28 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash121d48df2f728b6289c46dd4e521917bfda10cd9813629727185c5906416df38
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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