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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-27🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f1d16637

Nick Sogard Over 0.5 Hits

Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-164

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 89.7% over last 8 games vs 62.1% implied → +14.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 8 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +14.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #23 vs this prop (-4.9% vs league avg over 266 games)
  • 89.7% over last 8 games

Line movement

-164-1640.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-164
1.6098
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1058
UUID05bc3dde-0560-4184-9bfe-1ddd536fc08d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-27 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-28 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf1d16637b778e4e1697a5819776a6abd6269a7e0073f0f4cce487bfdabe9607d
Closing line-164 captured 2026-05-27 21:16 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash792a1a6c26337e54d939b7049d819a47a086299d58fcbb96795f4d14237ae9d8

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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