Dean Wade Over 0.5 3PM
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
-240risk0.14u→win0.06u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 70.6% implied → +16.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +16.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #26 vs this prop (-11.6% vs league avg over 121 games)
- 86.7% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#515
UUID05efbdf0-8581-4975-a5b4-a7ff251b5adc
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-07 21:12 UTC
Graded2026-05-08 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4d18594cf669fa6f1441a928c61e09ebbe2d2db54ab42de9a581df4888df4903
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Why this receipt is trustable
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- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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